Bovine Gallstones: A Market in Full Correction

2025-12-08 | News, Ox Gallstones

Bovine Gallstones: A Market in Full Correction – Heading for Stabilization or Another Drop?

Bovine gallstones – the famous Calculus bovis or niu huang – make up a market that is tiny in volume but colossal in value.

Scraped from the bottom of the gallbladders of a few cattle out of thousands, then dried, sorted and exported at eye-watering prices, they have, in just a few years, become one of the most expensive by-products of the meat industry – far ahead of tongue or even prime offal.

After a phase of genuine “speculative fever” up to 2023–2024, market participants now describe a market “that just keeps falling.” Yet prices remain, objectively, stratospheric: we are still talking about tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars per kilo for the best lots.

For a slaughterhouse, a collector or a dealer, the key question is therefore not whether the product retains its value (it retains a great deal), but whether the current correction will continue or whether the market is heading toward some form of high-level stabilization.

1. Reminder: A Rare Product at the Heart of the Chinese Pharmacopoeia

Bovine gallstones have been used for centuries in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM). Under the name Niu Huang (牛黄), they are used in particular in the formulation of the emblematic pill Angong Niuhuang Wan, a classic remedy prescribed for severe neurological disorders (strokes, febrile comas, disturbances of consciousness, etc.).

A few key characteristics structure this market:

  • A highly concentrated end demand in Asia, essentially in mainland China and Hong Kong, where the major TCM manufacturers and distributors are based.

  • Extremely scarce natural production: estimates mention around 200 kg per year for all of Australia, and around 2 tonnes for Brazil, the world’s leading producer.

  • A structural gap between supply and demand: pharmaceutical demand is measured in tonnes, while global natural production of niu huang is far below that level.

This imbalance explains why, as early as the 2010s, gallstones were already being sold at prices higher than gold on certain Asian markets.

2. The 2020s Bubble: From “Brown Gold” to Speculative Euphoria

2.1. Explosion of Demand in China

Global imports of bovine gallstones via Hong Kong rose sharply between 2019 and 2023, fuelled by rising sales of Angong Niuhuang Wan and similar preparations, by the ageing of the Chinese population and by the growing role of TCM in the healthcare system.

In Chinese and Hong Kong media, beef gallstones are portrayed as a “new gold,” feeding popular fascination and speculative expectations.

2.2. Stratospheric Prices and Excesses

In this context, prices have soared:

  • In Australia, the trade press has reported prices reaching more than AUD 300,000/kg for top-quality lots.

  • In South America, some commercial agreements have placed exported gallstones at nearly USD 250,000/kg.

  • Specialized European buyers were, until recently, still quoting maximum prices of around USD 150,000/kg, before slashing their buying scales.

International articles describe an explosion in smuggling, particularly in Brazil, involving armed robberies, clandestine routes via Hong Kong and money laundering, as the per-kilo value far exceeds that of gold. On the Australian side, some brokers were already saying in 2024 that the price level was “ridiculous” and unsustainable, openly speaking of a speculative bubble.

3. Why Does the Market Keep Falling?

From 2024 onward, several signals point more to a correction phase than to a sudden crisis. However, upstream players in the chain (slaughterhouses, collectors) have the clear sense of a market “in continuous decline.”

3.1. A Correction from an Abnormally High Peak

Specialist analyses describe this dynamic very clearly: after a “niu huang fever” during which some lots reached levels deemed untenable, the market has entered a normalization phase, with:

  • A retreat from the extreme prices seen at the height of the bubble.

  • Buyers becoming more selective on quality.

  • Widening spreads between premium lots and standard lots.

For suppliers, this normalization translates concretely into less aggressive purchase offers and average lots being downgraded more frequently – hence a perception of almost permanent decline, even though levels remain historically very high.

3.2. Opening of New Flows: Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, etc.

A second key factor is the opening or structuring of new export channels to China, particularly in Latin America:

  • Uruguay has signed an agreement authorizing the export of bovine gallstones as a high-value pharmaceutical raw material, with a planned plant to collect and sort gallstones from across the region and ship them to China.

  • Argentina has concluded a detailed sanitary protocol with China for the export of gallstones, setting strict requirements for traceability and veterinary controls.

These agreements add to existing flows from Brazil, Australia, the United States and Europe. As a result, China now has a much broader range of suppliers, which reduces its exposure to temporary tensions in any single origin and limits sellers’ bargaining power.

3.3. Partial Lifting of the Import Ban in China

For a long time, China strictly regulated, or even restricted, imports of natural Calculus bovis, out of concern for health safety and to encourage the use of artificial substitutes.

In 2024 and then 2025, the authorities implemented a two-year pilot program allowing the import of natural niu huang into several provinces, under very strict conditions regarding composition and traceability.

In practice, this has had a dual effect:

  1. Securing volumes through official channels, which reduces the risk premium associated with grey or illegal circuits.

  2. Strengthening the bargaining power of major Chinese buyers, who can now pit several origins and operators against one another.

3.4. Cultured and Synthetic Substitutes: The Safety Valve

Faced with the rarity and vertiginous cost of the natural product, China has long developed “cultured” gallstones (artificially formed from bovine bile) and synthetic forms grouped under the term Calculus Bovis Sativus.

Recent pharmacological research shows that these artificial forms can reproduce part of the neuroprotective and hepatoprotective effects of the natural product, with a controlled toxicity profile.

Even if, in the minds of many TCM practitioners, the natural product remains the benchmark, these substitutes provide a safety valve: as soon as the price of natural niu huang becomes too high, laboratories can shift part of their formulations toward cultured or synthetic forms. This reduces pressure on demand for natural gallstones and helps ease prices.

3.5. Strengthened Traceability and the Fight Against Smuggling

Smuggling scandals and suspicions of fraud (mixed lots, stones from other animals, or inert materials imitating the appearance of gallstones) have prompted both authorities and industry to step up controls:

  • Requirements for detailed veterinary certificates for export.

  • Chemical analyses to verify bilirubin and bile acid content.

  • Increased checks at the Chinese border.

The more flows pass through official channels, the less the risk premium justifying extravagant prices can be maintained. The cleanup of the market therefore also weighs on prices, particularly in channels that had benefited from opacity to inflate their margins.

3.6. Greater Quality Selectivity and Price Segmentation

European players stress the growing importance of quality grading: colour, homogeneity, stone size, moisture content, absence of mould, etc.

In the current context:

  • Premium lots (whole stones, well dried, golden in colour, with excellent traceability) continue to command exceptional prices.

  • Medium or heterogeneous lots see their prices significantly trimmed, as buyers can now turn to other origins or to substitutes.

For a slaughterhouse that produces only a handful of grams per year, often of variable quality, this segmentation translates concretely into an average price decline that feels continuous, even though the top end of the market remains very high.

4. A Quick Map of the Main Global Players

Even though the market is discreet – some would say opaque – several major categories of actors can be distinguished.

4.1. The Demand Hub: Mainland China and Hong Kong

  • Hong Kong plays the role of historic interface, with sharply rising imports of bovine gallstones since 2019.

  • TCM laboratories (manufacturers of Angong Niuhuang Wan and similar formulas) form the core of demand. Their sourcing strategy (natural vs. cultured/synthetic) directly influences the upstream market.

To this are added other Asian markets (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan), which remain niche but regular buyers of high-quality lots.

4.2. The Major Supply Basins: Americas, Oceania, Europe

Latin America

  • Brazil: the world’s largest producer of bovine gallstones, with potential output of around 2 tonnes per year, in a context marked by smuggling and informal circuits.

  • Uruguay and Argentina: gaining momentum with new export agreements to China, positioning themselves as high-value, “official” suppliers.

Oceania

  • Australia: a very mature market, with specialized brokers operating for several decades, structured collection, and historically high prices.

Europe

  • Companies in Spain, France and Ireland have established themselves as reference brokers, linking European slaughterhouses with Asian buyers.

Africa and Other Regions

  • Offers are beginning to emerge from Africa (Kenya, Nigeria, etc.), often via B2B platforms and trading sites, but the volume and reliability of these flows remain highly variable.

4.3. Specialized Intermediaries: Private Buyers and B2B Platforms

Finally, a key link in the market is made up of highly specialized private buyers, often based in Europe or Asia, who:

  • Provide regularly updated price schedules.

  • Take care of grading, drying and aggregation of lots.

  • Handle logistics and ensure compliance with documentation requirements.

5. Where Is the Market Heading? Prolonged Decline or High-Level Stabilization?

5.1. Signals in Favour of Stabilization

Several factors converge to suggest that the phase of major correction could, within a few years, give way to a sort of high-level plateau:

  1. Diversification and securitization of supply sources.

  2. Official channels and strict sanitary protocols.

  3. Clear segmentation between natural, cultured and synthetic products.

  4. More moderate demand growth after several years of explosive expansion.

In this logic, the baseline medium-term scenario is one of average prices below the 2023–24 peaks but stabilized at a historically high level, with a growing gap between premium and ordinary lots.

5.2. Factors That Could Still Pull the Market Down

Conversely, several risks argue in favour of continued downward pressure, at least on some segments:

  • Expansion of substitutes if clinical trials confirm their effectiveness.

  • Opening of new supplying countries that would increase global supply.

  • Stricter regulatory or reputational constraints on the use of rare animal-derived ingredients.

  • Complete deflation of the speculative component around niu huang.

In this scenario, the decline would not mean a collapse of the market – gallstones would remain expensive – but extreme price levels would become rare, reserved for a few exceptional lots with impeccable traceability.

5.3. A Rebound Scenario Remains Possible (But Less Likely)

Even though the current dynamic is mainly framed as “continuous decline” versus “stabilization,” a rebound scenario cannot be ruled out:

  • Discovery of new, highly value-creating medical indications;

  • Tighter restrictions on substitutes;

  • Health or climatic shocks sharply reducing slaughter numbers and thus supply.

Given the ultra-rare nature of the product, any shock to supply or demand can generate temporary price spikes. But in view of the current state of the market, these would more likely be short-lived increases than a sustained return to the speculative fever of 2023–24.

6. What Are the Implications for Stakeholders (Slaughterhouses, Collectors, Traders)?

In a market that is correcting but remains highly profitable, several strategic paths emerge.

6.1. Focusing on Quality and Traceability

Buyers are increasingly selective. To position themselves in the premium segment (the lots that will best withstand the downturn), it is becoming essential to:

  • Put in place strict collection procedures at the slaughterhouse (identification of gallbladders, undamaged recovery, careful cleaning).

  • Ensure slow drying, away from light and humidity, with temperature control to avoid mould and cracking.

  • Document the origin of the animals (country, production system) and the conditions of collection and storage, in order to meet the growing requirements of the Chinese authorities.

6.2. Building Direct Relationships with Specialized Buyers

The market is dominated by a handful of experienced buyer-brokers, capable of aggregating lots, managing international logistics and negotiating with Asian clients. For a slaughterhouse or collector:

  • Concluding long-term contracts with these operators can provide greater visibility and limit price volatility.

  • Taking part in loyalty or quality-bonus programs offered by some buyers helps secure an outlet under relatively transparent conditions.

6.3. Adapting Pricing Strategy: Avoiding Local Speculation

Faced with a market declining from an exceptional peak, there is a strong temptation to hold stock in the hope of a new price spike. But current signals (import openings, substitutes, tighter regulation) instead point to a trajectory of normalization.

In practice, to limit risks, it is generally more prudent to:

  • Sell the volumes produced on a regular basis, following the reference buyers’ price schedules.

  • Avoid locking up large stocks in a bet on a hypothetical rebound that may never reach the record levels of 2023–24 again.

7. Conclusion: A Less Euphoric but Durably Lucrative Market

The market for bovine gallstones is emerging from a period of speculative fever, driven by Chinese demand and by an almost financial perception of this “brown gold.”

The current phase is clearly one of correction: prices are retreating from their peaks, buyers are more selective, competition between origins and the rise of substitutes are weighing on the offers made to slaughterhouses and collectors.

Nonetheless, price levels remain exceptionally high in light of the product’s history and rarity.

The most likely medium-term outcome is neither a complete collapse nor a return to bubble territory, but stabilization at a high level, with:

  • A better-structured market;

  • More official, regulated flows;

  • Marked segmentation between premium natural, standard natural, cultured and synthetic products.

For cattle sector stakeholders, this means that gallstones remain an extremely attractive co-product, but they should now be approached not as a speculative lottery ticket, but as a professional niche market, demanding in terms of quality, traceability and regulatory compliance.

In other words: the brown-gold rush is coming to an end, but niu huang will continue to weigh very heavily in the valorization of cattle – provided operators know how to adapt to this new landscape.